Odisha Sun Times Bureau
Bhubaneswar, Apr 24:
Months before the India Meteorological Department (IMD) prediction, almanacs published in Odisha had foretold below normal rainfall during the four-month monsoon season from June to September this year.
The almanac published from Radharaman Press for 2016 predicts ‘below normal’ rainfall this monsoon.
“Odisha will experience abnormal weather this year. The state’s zodiac sign is Cancer and Jupiter will transit in Leo from this July. Leo is an element of fire as a result of which it would impact the rainfall. Besides, the Jupiter transit in Leo is not conducive for agriculture,” eminent astrologer Nimai Banerjee had said.
Extreme heat condition prevails when Mars transits in Sun. During the current season, the Mars would transit Sun or revolve around it for which heat wave conditions will prevail and sunstroke-related cases would rise, he said.
As mercury would be in transit and would move backwards from Jan 23-Feb 15, May 20- June 11, Sep 18- Oct 09, adverse weather conditions would be experienced across the state during this period. The weather would be unpredictable during this summer, the almanac had said.
The mercury would shoot forcing people to stay indoors for a couple of days and would pull it down with norwester, thunderstorm and squall. The mercury could rise up to 49 degree Celsius, the almanac predicted.
These abnormal weather conditions would prevail and would affect the rainfall. There would be unseasonal rain giving rise to flash floods in the state. The below normal rainfall this rainy season would affect the farmers the most, the almanac predicted.
As per the almanac, the formation of clouds (garbhadharana) takes place 195 days before their birth or delivery or garbhaprasava. During this period, clouds were grouped as Abartak (Avartak), Sambartak (Samvartak), Pushkara and Drona. If abartak is dominating one year, rain will be received in certain places in that year; if it is sambartak, rain will be received in all of the country; If pushkara, the quantity of rain will be very less; and if it is drona, that year will receive abundant rain water.
There would be rainfall for 96 days of which it would occur 48 days in sea, 28 days in river and 20 days in hills, Radharaman panjika says.
Notably, minimum rainfall for 120 days constitutes average rainfall during a season.
According to Odisha Kohinoor panjika, there would be rainfall for 96 days of which it would occur 48 days in sea, 29 days in river and 19 days in hills.
The Asali Khadiratna panjika, Samanta panjika, Jatiya Khadiratna panjika and others also predict similar calculations. The calculations made by eminent astrologers arrive at the same figures of 96 days of rainfall this monsoon.
The monsoon will spread across the country in July, but August and September will witness a long dry-spell, the almanacs have predicted.
It may be mentioned that IMD has said that India as a whole is likely to receive 93 per cent of its normal rainfall. It said there was a 35 percent probability that the rainfall would remain between 90 to 96 per cent, which is classified as ‘below normal’. There was an error margin of 5 per cent in the forecast.
If the rainfall follows the forecast, this would be the second successive year of below normal rainfall. Last year, India had received 88 per cent of normal rainfall.
India receives 89 cm of rainfall during the monsoon season.
One of the factors dragging monsoon rainfall this year is the development of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific ocean. El Nino is a warming effect in the Pacific Ocean of the south American coast that is known to have an impact on the Indian monsoon. El Nino has mostly corresponded to poor monsoon in India.