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Naveen’s worst nightmare may come true: 77 in Assembly, 6 in LS for BJD!

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Reported by Chinmaya Dehury
Bhubaneswar, May 7:

The worst fears of Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik are threatening to come true. If the report perpared by the state intelligence is anything to go by, the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) will just about scrape past the half-way mark in the Assembly, winning a maximum of 80 seats in the 147-member House, and stay content with just six (yes, you heard it right) seats in the Lok Sabha in Election 2014.

Picture Courtesy: newindianexpress.com
Picture Courtesy: newindianexpress.com

The projections of the intelligence department suggest that the BJD would win 77 (+_3) seats, Congress 35 (+_5), BJP 23 (+_5), CPI 1, CPM 1, Samata Kranti Dal 1, Ama Odisha Party 1 and Independents + Aam Admi Party 5.

The BJD’s hopes of playing a ‘bigger role’ at the national level in the post-poll scenario – and even seeing its president becoming the Prime Minister in case of a hung Parliament – have been rudely dashed with the party projected to win no more than six seats in the Lok Sabha.

In what certainly would be particularly galling for Naveen, the BJP, which he had snubbed so tellingly in the run up to the last general elections, is set to have the last laugh, set as it is to win as many as 10 out of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The Congress, which had won six seats last time, is all set to shed one, as per the intelligence projections.

The projected figures can hardly be music to the ears of the BJD supremo, whose body language while addressing the media after his return from New Delhi on Sunday had given the game away. Hectic confabulations with party leaders the next day had buttressed the impression that for all his bravado in public, Naveen is a worried man these days.

While the figures leave no room for doubt that Naveen Patnaik would become the Chief Minister for the fourth time running, the wafer-thin majority projected means he will have to do a tight-rope walk for the entire duration of his next term since it won’t need more than five MLAs to reduce his government to a minority.

Senior BJD leaders, tired and fed up of playing ‘servants’ to the ‘monarch’, are actually relishing the prospect of a Naveen Patnaik being kept under a tight leash.

The prospect of a fourth successive government, however, is little consolation for the BJD boss, who had hoped to strike a good bargain with the next government with his dozen plus MPs. If the intelligence projections come true, his room for manoeuvre would be severely restricted when talks start for the formation of the next government.

With 10 seats in the kitty in a state where it had never won a seat on its own, it is the BJP which will now call the shots – and not the BJD – in any talk about supporting an NDA government at the Centre, which looks a near-certainty at this stage.

6 COMMENTS

  1. This is the wish of the writer not the reality. If it happens, is it good for Odisha??? or Is it good for India???

    • Mr Das, we would like to make it very clear that the report is based on the inputs provided by the state government’s intelligence department to the state Home department. The so-called ‘wish of the writer’, as presumed by you, has had no role to play. Whether the possibilities projected by the intelligence report are based on facts/truth or not, and whether it is good for Odisha or India, are questions that are beyond the scope of the published report : OST Desk

  2. Dear OST Desk, Why don’t you publish the report irrespective of whether Intelligence report is based on facts or not. Unfortunately facts are being concealed for the unknown reasons…. Anyway, Let people guess

    • Dear Mr Das, we are not sure what ‘facts’ you are talking about. How can anyone conceal facts that are unknown ? Your guess is as good or as bad as that of the state intelligence department. We have been only quoting the speculations and estimates by individuals, survey teams and agencies about the possible poll results. We have no forecast or guesswork to offer. However, you are most welcome to come up with the facts that you suspect others are trying to conceal. We assure you, it will be published on our website- OST team

  3. 1. Possible Poll Results – Banned till polling ends on 12th May 2014.
    2. If you want to carry out surveys, the best should be ask 10 People each from different segments, who are unknown to you….
    3. Let’s wait to see, How Media today is post 12th May 2014????
    4. Should our Editors not ask every MLA aspirants, what should be a Manifesto for their Region??? For Example: Why can not Puri to Chilika Bays can be made as India’s second ENNORE????

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